China Swaps US Crude For Canadian Surge In 2025 Imports

Chinese imports of crude oil from the US plunged by 61% year-on-year in 2025 while imports from Canada soared by 313%, Bimco’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Niels Rasmussen, has revealed.

Canada’s exports have risen dramatically as large volumes of oil are now transported by the vast Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline, linking the oilfields of Alberta with the Westridge export terminal in Vancouver.

From there, tankers up to Aframax size carry crude across the Pacific with Chinese importers picking up the lion’s share.

This new trade has shortened sailing distances and has Chinese tonne-mile growth to just 3.2% in 2025.This, in turn, has had a significant impact on VLCCs and Suezmax tankers because Chinese long-haul imports from the US Gulf have now been replaced with the shorter-voyage oil in Aframax tankers.

Rasmussen revealed that China’s crude oil imports rose by 4.9% to 11.6 million barrels per day (bpd) last year, up from 11.1 million bpd in 2024, based on figures from China’s General Administration of Customs. Seaborne imports increased by an estimated 4%.China’s stockpiles, meanwhile, rose by close to 1 million bpd, indicating that underlying import demand fell by nearly 500,000 bpd.

Assessing the months ahead, Rasmussen commented: “In 2026, both the Energy Information Agency and the International Energy Agency (IEA) expect Chinese oil consumption to increase only 0.2 million bpd (1.2% year-on-year).

Seaborne volumes may grow slower as the IEA estimates that Chinese refinery runs will increase 0.1m b/d while the EIA expects support from stockpiling to remain nearly 1 million bpd.